August 2007

Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in August 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

Burundi’s political crisis deepened with attacks on politicians’ homes and stalled peace talks between the government and the country’s last active rebel group, the Palipehutu-FNL. Insecurity deteriorated further in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant troop movements and clashes in the east. In Bangladesh, student anti-government protests turned violent and curfews were imposed in six cities. Tensions between Georgia and Russia soared as a guided missile fell near South Ossetia and the two neighbours traded sharp accusations. In Guatemala, a string of over 40 political murders ahead of 9 September presidential elections marked one of the bloodiest campaign periods since the end of that country’s civil war in 1996. Deadly blasts in Hyderabad in India killed over 40, while separatist violence in the north east intensified. Somalia saw violence surge, particularly in the capital Mogadishu, even as the National Reconciliation Congress continued and wrapped up at the end of the month. In the Philippines, fighting spiked between the government and Muslim militants, while peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front were again postponed. And the situation in Iraq became even more unstable, ungoverned and violent as coordinated blasts in Yazidi villages killed some 500 in the deadliest attack since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

The situation improved in Sierra Leone and Turkey in August. The 11 August presidential and parliamentary elections in Sierra Leone – the first since UN peacekeepers withdrew in 2005 – were generally fair and free of violence. Turkey saw a victory for democratic process in the 28 August parliamentary election of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as president.

For September 2007, CrisisWatch identifies the Democratic Republic of Congo as a Conflict Risk Alert, or a situation at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.

AUGUST 2007 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations: Bangladesh, Burundi, DR Congo, Georgia, Guatemala, India (non-Kashmir), Iraq, Philippines, Somalia